Tallon Duckworth 🎾 @tennisratings
Top rated WTA-Tipster @pyckio pyckio.com/i/#!account/ta… Joined August 2021-
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Covered Tournaments during the european claycourt season: La Bisbal, Oeiras, Rouen, Saint Malo, Lleida, Rome, Parma, Paris, Strasbourg, Rabat, Roland Garros.
🏴Scotland League One 13 Jan #tipico
🇩🇪2. Bundesliga #Powerranking 01/24 1 St. Pauli 2 Hamburger SV 3 Düsseldorf 4 Hannover 5 Greuther Fürth 6 Schalke 7 Holstein Kiel 8 Elversberg 9 Hertha Berlin 10 Magdeburg 11 Paderborn 12 Kaiserslautern 13 Karlsruhe 14 Nürnberg 15 Braunschweig 16 Wehen 17 Rostock 18 Osnabrück
Number of Bets: 78 (+CLV 65-13) Avg CLV: 10.4% xROI: 5.9%
Closing odds: Servette 1.56 📉CLV 12.2% xROI 7.8%✅ Thun 1.85 📉 CLV 10.8% xROI 6.5%✅ Vaduz 2.19 📈 CLV -1.8% xROI -5.8%❌
Closing odds: Servette 1.56 📉CLV 12.2% xROI 7.8%✅ Thun 1.85 📉 CLV 10.8% xROI 6.5%✅ Vaduz 2.19 📈 CLV -1.8% xROI -5.8%❌
Close 1.70 📉CLV 8.8% xROI 5%✅
Close 1.70 📉CLV 8.8% xROI 5%✅
Closing odds: Altach 2.14 📉CLV 26.2% xROI 22.6%✅ Rapid 1.35 📉CLV 17.0% xROI 13.4%✅
Closing odds: Altach 2.14 📉CLV 26.2% xROI 22.6%✅ Rapid 1.35 📉CLV 17.0% xROI 13.4%✅
🇩🇪Germany Bundesliga 20-21 Jan
🇩🇪Germany 2. Bundesliga 21 Jan
The optimal time to bet is based on: 1) How much you're trying to get down; and 2) How much information you need to detect value @Quantum_Sport talks about this at length in his book "Winning Sports Betting". Have a great weekend 🫡
🏴England Premier League 3 Dez #bet365
Pinnacle Close: Stranraer 1.96 CLV4.6% xROI 0.6%✅ East Fife 1.83 CLV 9.3% xROI 5.1%✅ Alloa 1.87 CLV 3.8% xROI -0.1%❌ Annan 1.87 CLV -1.1% xROI -4.6%❌
Pinnacle Close: Stranraer 1.96 CLV4.6% xROI 0.6%✅ East Fife 1.83 CLV 9.3% xROI 5.1%✅ Alloa 1.87 CLV 3.8% xROI -0.1%❌ Annan 1.87 CLV -1.1% xROI -4.6%❌
Pinnacle Close: Lisen 1.83 CLV 5.2% xROI 1.5%✅ Brno 1.55 CLV 19.4% xROI 12.9%✅ Opava 1.66 CLV 9.9% xROI 4.9%✅
Pinnacle Close: Lisen 1.83 CLV 5.2% xROI 1.5%✅ Brno 1.55 CLV 19.4% xROI 12.9%✅ Opava 1.66 CLV 9.9% xROI 4.9%✅
Pinnacle Close: Kozani 2.68 CLV 34.3% xROI 25.3%✅ Larissa 1.33 CLV 27.8% xROI 19.6%✅
Pinnacle Close: Kozani 2.68 CLV 34.3% xROI 25.3%✅ Larissa 1.33 CLV 27.8% xROI 19.6%✅
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Jeffrey John Wolf, ladies and gentlemen!!! 3-1, +1.62u Eubanks ruined the Perfect with two horrid tiebreaks. Garin up a set, pushed to tomorrow.
Another declining year for racing markets on Betfair, volumes down more than 50% from their peak
The optimal time to bet is based on: 1) How much you're trying to get down; and 2) How much information you need to detect value @Quantum_Sport talks about this at length in his book "Winning Sports Betting". Have a great weekend 🫡
Completely illogical but true ranking of how hard I root for various bets: 1) Bet I've publicly claimed has value 2) Bet where I lost big CLV (🖕to the market) 3) Against a bet I decided to pass on 4) Bet where I'm on an island among sharps 5) Bet where I have actual big money
Every total with 10%+ CLV this weekend. Win: Nantes-Le Havre u2.25 (14.3%) Loss: Burnley-West Ham u2.75 (12.6%) Frankfurt-Stuttgart u2.75 (12.5%) Lyon-Lille o2.5 (11.2%) Alaves-Granada u2.5 (11.1%) Forest-Brighton u2.75 (10.8%) Salernitana-Lazio u2.5 (10.5%) Tough out there.
Congratulations. You survived the international break. As a welcome back gift, you get two teams that are good at just about everything. Except Unders.
NO INTERNATIONAL BREAK FOR 4 MONTHS!
On @CirclesOffHQ, @DeRosa_Antonino said odds 15-20 mins before close are often the most efficient, b/c traders at times intentionally over-adjust odds to help correct bad positions. I’d never heard this - fascinating. What do the last 1126 EPL matches suggest about this theory?
Rollercoaster day in the Napoli-Empoli totals market. Heavy over steam this morning, followed by an equally big crash. Kvaratskhelia starting on the bench accelerated a late move to the under, but it was crashing well before that. 0-0 at HT. Kvara very likely on before long.
73% ROI is what happens when a team with 1000-1 title odds wins 10 of their first 12 matches.
They did it. They didn't lose.
As your skill improves, your search for more liquidity will push you into increasingly heightened competition. Think of liquidity like weight classes in MMA/Boxing. The best table you can play at is relative to your skill/strategy/bankroll.
Are you familiar with the Closing Line Value (CLV) Theory? If you're into betting, you should know it well. It is a MUST. I explain it in these 2 videos. 📽 Part I: youtube.com/watch?v=-uLJUh… 📽 Part II: youtube.com/watch?v=MZCeHi… Some bettors fully support the CLV Theory, while…
Newcastle vs Arsenal: Advanced Stats and Betting Preview. Newcastle xPts Per Game 👀
There's a feeling that Man Utd have been overvalued for years, with reputation exceeding performance. Do Asian Handicap markets reflect that? AH ROI by EPL Team, since 2014-15 (min 100 games). Man Utd 13th of 25. More accurately valued in the market than most teams, it seems.
Understanding closing line value (= clv) is absolutely vital for aspiring sports bettors. As soon as you get a grasp on this metric you will think completely differently (and properly!) about your bet. All of a sudden the outcome becomes irrelevant! If you take a bet at 3.5…
Good teams win, great teams cover: Getafe: 2 real wins, 13th in La Liga. 7 Asian Handicap Wins, 39% ROI. Forest: 2 real wins & 16th in EPL. 6 Asian Handicap Wins, 27% ROI. Lorient: 2 real wins & 15th in Ligue 1. 6 Asian Handicap Wins, 20% ROI.
@stevengfan8 Doesn't seem too uncommon at this point in the season. Mainz Overs have basically the same split, for example (-9.2% CLV, +55% ROI). By the end of the season, most teams will have between -1% to -5% true CLV, but some will have 20%+ ROI (e.g. Fulham last year at 27%).
The market HATES RB Leipzig. Betting their handicap each week, you'd average -9.0% true CLV. Leverkusen: -11.6% Stuttgart: -15.8% Union Berlin: +7.3% Augsburg: -13.4% Gladbach: -8.8% Bayern: -12.1% Bochum: -11.1% Darmstadt: -4.6% Koln: -11.1% *NOTE: You'd also have +51% ROI.
No easy money out there! 💰 Using soft books? Then you gain high ROIs with simple methods, but have to deal with account restrictions. Using sharp books? Then you need more sophisticated methods for a lower ROI. No restrictions. Either way you have to put the efforts in!
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