How will the end of the russian war in Ukraine look? Russia will loose, but what does it mean in practice? But first let’s dispel some myths. Myth 1. There will be a clear end to the war after which Russia won’t be a threat to Ukraine and the world anymore. For that to happen,1/

russia must change and the reasons for this war must disappear. In my view, the reasons for the war are cultural. it is not Putin and a group of political elites who support this war and would support others. There are hundreds of thousands of people in russia who 2/

are involved in deliberate planning and execution of war crimes, murder of civilians, missile attacks on infrastructure, destruction of cities and villages. They are ok with it. Otherwise they would have emigrated prior to being mobilized or just now. There are further 3/

tens of millions of people who are not directly involved in the war but support it, cheer and enjoy the feeling of russia “greatness and superiority”. They are ok with Putin, they are ok with invading another country, they are ok with killing hundreds of thousands of people. 4/

These people will not disappear after the war is over. They will not change their views. They are not in denial, but rather subscribe to the idea of the rule by force, to the idea of killing others to get some territory in the name of great russia. They lost humanity, and 5/

it will be difficult for them to find it. Even and when Putin dies or gets assasinated, these people will be humiliated and will want a revenge. And yet they have to be contained, they have to learn to loose, they have to learn that they way of the world is no more 6/

and that they cannot get what they want by force. They have to learn to be humble and that means they will have to be put in place. This brings us to Myth 2. All wars end with a diplomatic solution and therefore there will be a diplomatic solution to this war. 7/

No, because these tens of millions of people believe in their greatness, are willing to kill others in its name. They live in a false reality where learning feedback mechanism have failed a long time ago. So, unfortunately, and however painful it is to admit this, there is no 8/

reasoning with them. Does it mean that the war will never end? No. But the war will have to be ended through force, by exhausting the ability for russia to wage this war, by denying its ability to run its economy, by pushing russia from the Ukrainian territory. Once that’s done9/

russia can be contained. Politically, militarily, economically. Ukraine and the world will have to be ready for another attack anytime. Moreover, missile attacks, skirmishes, infiltrations, localized attacks will continue. Until russia has no more missiles and more people who 10/

are willing to fight. And it will take time. A long time. And only then russians may start reconsidering their views. But until then we have to fight to contain. More weapons, more sanctions, more support. This is the way to stop this madness and bring the victory forward1 1/11

@Mylovanov Sanctions will not work until they are imposed on countries that trade with Russia. NATO countries + friends should not purchase products from any country that uses Russian oil in the manufacture.

@Mylovanov What happens if China backs Russia? It could happen! It is being watched now! War is not that easy in a world with too many things going wrong!

@Mylovanov Putin is recreating both Imperial Russia under the czars before revolution, & brutality of Stalinist regime in which he grew up. In both, life was cheap, at least for the masses. But Putin & Stalin also took out those in their inner circles. 1/

@Mylovanov Great thread - I think some also underestimate the likelihood of civil war within Russia by some of the more distant and culturally distinct provinces as a trigger to the end of the invasion of Ukraine. The west is (imho incorrectly) pinning hopes on changes in Moscow and StP’g

@Mylovanov Best solution is for Russians to fight each other.

@Mylovanov So Rus will be like a post 1991 version of Iraq, Saddam’s army was evicted out of Kuwait? Putin is likely to stay in power just as did Saddam. It took 20 years and a shock & awe campaign before Saddam was hanged by the neck. And it’s unclear if the region is better for it.

@Mylovanov What about the opposition in Russia? Oh wait, there is none. Because no one in the west want to support it. Instead they made great deals with the person who killed, imprisoned or forced to leave every single person who opposed him.

@Mylovanov Agree with this conclusion: More weapons, more sanctions, more support. This is the way to stop this madness and bring victory forward.