How will the end of the russian war in Ukraine look? Russia will loose, but what does it mean in practice? But first let’s dispel some myths. Myth 1. There will be a clear end to the war after which Russia won’t be a threat to Ukraine and the world anymore. For that to happen,1/
russia must change and the reasons for this war must disappear. In my view, the reasons for the war are cultural. it is not Putin and a group of political elites who support this war and would support others. There are hundreds of thousands of people in russia who 2/
are involved in deliberate planning and execution of war crimes, murder of civilians, missile attacks on infrastructure, destruction of cities and villages. They are ok with it. Otherwise they would have emigrated prior to being mobilized or just now. There are further 3/
tens of millions of people who are not directly involved in the war but support it, cheer and enjoy the feeling of russia “greatness and superiority”. They are ok with Putin, they are ok with invading another country, they are ok with killing hundreds of thousands of people. 4/
These people will not disappear after the war is over. They will not change their views. They are not in denial, but rather subscribe to the idea of the rule by force, to the idea of killing others to get some territory in the name of great russia. They lost humanity, and 5/
it will be difficult for them to find it. Even and when Putin dies or gets assasinated, these people will be humiliated and will want a revenge. And yet they have to be contained, they have to learn to loose, they have to learn that they way of the world is no more 6/
and that they cannot get what they want by force. They have to learn to be humble and that means they will have to be put in place. This brings us to Myth 2. All wars end with a diplomatic solution and therefore there will be a diplomatic solution to this war. 7/
No, because these tens of millions of people believe in their greatness, are willing to kill others in its name. They live in a false reality where learning feedback mechanism have failed a long time ago. So, unfortunately, and however painful it is to admit this, there is no 8/
@Mylovanov I agree and here's Bitcoin comes to play. It's the good news for Ukraine and for the civilization. Bitcoin suppresses the violence. Russia's humiliating forceful enforcement of peace surprisingly coincides with the hyperbitcoinization going on right now all over the world.
@Mylovanov What transpired in Germany after WWII - humiliation, humility, containing what had been a national surge in aggression. But imo the same interests are performing as wolf in sheep’s clothing, stalling weapons provision to Ukraine, Nordstrom etc
@Mylovanov ...and that self-admiration is not on the same continuum as self-confidence. Self-admiration is not related to dignity. People anywhere can look at the examples around them as demonstrations. Of course humility goes with self-confidence and with dignity.
@Mylovanov Point 2 is also very dubious. It all depends on how the war ends. If Ukraine liberates its 1991 territories, it will be very difficult to wage this sort of skirmish across the border. Even if not, violence in Donbas declined precipitously after first 18 months.