Thanks to @fgcaselli for a great job presenting the @imf inflation outlook at @NIESRorg. The simulations she showed illustrate the key to how long the inflation shock lasts is whether inflation expectations become more adaptive. Central banks seem to assume their credibility
If they are credible, their models tell them inflation will smoothly return to target without much effort. This seems complacent given the size, likely duration of the inflation surge and the spread of chunky price increases. Credibility needs to be earned, or at least refreshed
Central banks ASSUME credibility. An economist is on a desert island with a physicist and a chemist. A can of food washes ashore. The physicist advocates hitting it with a rock; the chemist wants to heat it over a fire until it bursts. The economist says, "assume a can opener."