Paul Mortimer-Lee @MortimerleePaul
Independent economist. Research Fellow @NIESRorg Ex-NIESR Deputy Director, ex-@bankofengland , ex- @IMF & ex-@BNPParibas Views = mine (except the wrong ones). Westchester NY Joined June 2012-
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With news of Israel’s strike on Iran tonight, it is unfortunately timely to revisit what we wrote late last year about the economic consequences of war between Israel and Hamas. The spread into a wider conflict has come later than I expected but the consequences are profound.…
Big implications for markets The Moral Hazard of Biden’s Support for Israel foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/17/isr… The US “ironclad” undertaking is problematic What if Israel escalates tensions. Can Biden back away? Does Netanyahu want confrontation to attack Iran’s nuclear program?
Short and to the point. Well worth reading from @ChathamHouse chathamhouse.org/2024/04/irans-…
Are we sure this was miscalculation? Or was it Netayahu seeking to provoke an Iranian response to bolster Biden’s flagging backing? How would the US have responded to the flattening its diplomatic mission in Syria? A case of the tail wagging the dog? nytimes.com/2024/04/17/wor…
I support @EconSteveM’s idea of the handing over the central forecast to bank staff. However, there’s the issue of whether of not this should be published. Publishing will constrain it to saying policy is appropriate. It should be an input to MPC inking, Nita summary of it,
I support @EconSteveM’s idea of the handing over the central forecast to bank staff. However, there’s the issue of whether of not this should be published. Publishing will constrain it to saying policy is appropriate. It should be an input to MPC inking, Nita summary of it,
Bank of England inflation review: Bernanke finds ‘significant shortcomings’. Well, when it comes to mistakes in forecasting, we have to listen to the guy the who said in May 2007 that subprime woes would not hurt the economy @benbernanke thetimes.co.uk/article/ba08d4…
#MMT cite manufacturing construction as showing interest rates don’t work 1) this is nominal terms. Inflation overstates it 2) AI revolution is driving computer chips 3) Taiwan/ China concerns likewise 4) Covid supply chain issues prompting nearshoring 5) EV affecting autos
The persistent noises on this out of Europe are very worrying. Add to that the likelihood of an Iranian response to the Israeli attack in Syria, and an Israeli response to that, and we have a recipe for much higher risk in financial markets. on.ft.com/3TPzSc7
.@paulkrugman ignores the fact that record house prices and the highest mortgage rates for decades means that housing affordability is appalling. People being able to afford a home is vital for their opinion of the economy nytimes.com/2024/04/08/opi…
.@StephanieKelton Let’s imagine 2 scenarios 1) The government takes an actual $20 bill from you and gives it to me 2) you pay the government $20 in taxes, which it destroys, and it credits my account with $20 of new money Seems to me that my command over resources has gone up…
Zimbabwe to launch ‘gold-backed’ currency to replace collapsing dollar via @FT #MMT in action on.ft.com/3U3Mmhs
Are US consumers out of sync with economic conditions? If we look at the "misery index" - the y/y CPI inflation rate plus the unemployment rate, sentiment does not seem far off where we should expect it to be. So, "no"
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@RichCawleySLP @CAFCofficial pathetically quiet on this . Come on Methven 👂
@munimanII @MortimerleePaul So were in agreement that QE/Zirp wasnt stimulative then?
Since interest paid on member bank reserve balances reduces remittances to Treasury, the Fed is *effectively* issuing 0 maturity, floating rate Treasuries that only a privileged set of entities can own.
@dandolfa Who knew handing people money instead of just banks would cause consumer inflation? 🤷🤣
732 clubs enter the FA Cup each year. This change is to appease about 5% of them. Yet again, the noisy, rich bullying ones.
The FA and The @premierleague have reached an agreement to strengthen the #EmiratesFACup format and increase support for grassroots football. Swipe for details ➡️
@_PeterVarney well said Peter. Personally, I'd like to see all @EFL clubs boycott the competition next season but it will never happen. We certainly need to see u21 teams kicked out of the EFL Trophy. #FACup
@_PeterVarney Every club in round one should play out a draw. Then they should all sue the FA for loss of earnings. Gate receipts, TV revenue and merchandising.
@_PeterVarney The #FACup has been repeatedly undermined by #TheFA ever since they allowed #ManUtd to not compete in favour of an oversees Club Cup. Then allowing the #FACupFinal to be played with a 5:30pm kick off instead of the traditional 3pm damaged the competition further IMO
The FA is justifying the scrapping of FA Cup replays on the basis that an extra £133m will be provided by the Premier League by way of compensation. As ever in football, money talks and the big clubs are only interested in the 38 x PL matches and European competition. Ideally…
@MMTmacrotrader Ya but what zirp did do is demolish all existing and potential competition to the largest corporations. It also allowed for current capital holders to dictate which ideas merit investment rather than banks. Turns out rich guys have different incentive sets than banks.
@elerianm @katie_martin_fx @FT The Fed has made two cardinal mistakes in just two years. Credibility? Meanwhile, The Fed's preferred inflation metric (in CPI) spiked to above 8% March CPI is 3.5%, the highest since September 2023 Core CPI is 3.8%, beating expectations for four months open.techwriters.info/globalmarketsi…
To paraphrase the IMF on private credit (after 20 pages of analysis): "We don't know if private credit is a problem, but it looks dodgy. The Fed says its fine" 😆
@MortimerleePaul and these days they get all their "best" ideas from the Osborne-Balls podcast 🤣
@crampell @POTUS @DeanBaker13 @BrankoMilan @ICCSecGen @RnaudBertrand @ammaralijan @NGruen1 @MortimerleePaul @MaxCRoser @jasoncrawford @darioperkins @CharlieTTEcon @Brad_Setser @ceprdc @dlacalle_IA @Jayati1609 @Lynn_Henning @philosophybites @lisaabramowicz1 @TheKouk @krogoff 3/3 Vote Democrats or Republicans = Both will NOT help YOU! "Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government.”― Milton Friedman
A meaningful softening of the UK labour market starting to emerge in the latest data. Unemployment up, employment & vacancies down, whilst total pay growth has slowed to 5.6% YoY in the latest data: ons.gov.uk/employmentandl… One of the biggest challenges facing both BoE and ECB is…
@MortimerleePaul OBR is stuffed full of ex Treasury officials too. We are locked in groupthink in the UK
Wow - Brussels police have shut down today's far-right National Conservatism conference where Viktor Orban, Suella Braverman, Nigel Farage and Eric Zemmour were due to speak. I'm afraid this just feeds into their persecution narrative... politico.eu/article/brusse…
Gaza is going hungry. Its children could face a lifetime of harm. Strong work from @RubyMellen and team. washingtonpost.com/world/interact…