allen h @HoskinsAllen
Independent AI research; taking time off from medical school allenai.substack.com United States Joined January 2023-
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Unbelievable just how different my 30s will be from my 20s. Or more broadly for everyone, the 2030s from the 2020s.
Geoffrey Hinton: it's possible that we still won't understand the brain at the point that AI is smarter than us
TikTok was the final stage of social media before we inevitably shift over to a weirder thing that’s not easily comparable to what came before it.
The waters get too muddy for most to see that AI is going to be insanely powerful — quickly — when big leaps are spread apart by more than a year. That’ll all clear up in a few months. This time it may splash in enough crystal clear water to never be a problem again.
If foraging for veges, berries, big game and surviving pre-100,000 B.C human tribal conflicts were enough to create artificial general intelligence, and seed people like Einstein— Then why would a motivated AI system trained on hard math and reasoning fail to self-improve?
There's a certain amount of insanity that everyone should feel from super powerful AIs on the horizon. Too little is clouded and unaware. Too much is frantic and maladaptive. Calibration is maximally aware will to thrive.
It's going to be weird in the future when we can rejuvenate ourselves so much that instead of "this person is too old for that" or "i'm in my 20's so that's too soon" that we're pretty much all going to be in the same bucket of life
Are men better at chess than women? To answer this let's use FIDE Data of almost 450,000 players. Here we see the male percentage steadily near 100% at the highest Elo ratings. It is probably the case that men are better. 🧵
Reason by analogy only when you’re forced to. Otherwise, reason by first principles.
I’ve heard people mention how AI generated music will go mainstream over the next two years I think there will also be an explosion of songs “about” AI over the next two years And within them a lot of frustration and mixed feelings alongside pure amazement and optimism
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@HoskinsAllen Some of us that are a little older know this feeling. Living through the 80s and 90s was crazy. I expect the next 5-10 will make that look like nothing. The last couple of decades have been quiet and the world is pregnant with the future.
Lol. LMAO. Are people really still this ignorant to what is happening? Do they think Sam, Elon, Dario are ignorant or straight up lying? We have to stop telling comforting lies to ourselves and start preparing for the actual future that is inexorably rushing towards us.
Will there be more or less programmers in 10 years? Would love to hear why in the comments.
The man who defies aging Chuando Tan is a 58-year-old man from Singapore who looks like he's in his 20s or 30s Here's a breakdown of his diet, exercise, and other routines⬇️⬇️
I hope the engineers in the SCIFs of frontier labs are keeping journals of their experiences, first contacts with new models, that kind of thing. It would be a shame if we never got to know those stories and those moments when this all becomes public.
@HoskinsAllen We've never cared about the powerful with their fingers on the scale before, can't imagine us caring now sadly. The consolation being that AI rapidly obsoletes our current economic system.
@HoskinsAllen "scale is all you need" in this context refers to the belief that you can get an agi just by training an NN on more data
magnet:?xt=urn:btih:9238b09245d0d8cd915be09927769d5f7584c1c9&dn=mixtral-8x22b&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Fopen.demonii.com%3A1337%2Fannounce&tr=http%3A%2F%https://t.co/OdtBUsbeV5%3A1337%2Fannounce
@humansingular @HoskinsAllen Well some things are pretty predictable right? We're going to keep going down this road of generally capable AI and robots. That will lead to a fully automated society but at some point we get ASI and then all bets are off.
@AbHomineDeus @HoskinsAllen How in 5-10years for u?
@HoskinsAllen Definition of the Singularity basically. Never has the future been so unknowable. Like a giant black wall and we can't see the other side. I have a pretty good idea of what I believe the next 5-10 years looks like but after that? Who fucking knows.
@HoskinsAllen Already tell my kids in 15 years give or take we'll look the same age.
@andromeda74356 I have lost count…currently more than 200 dollars
@HoskinsAllen "Reasoning by analogy is like a 10th grader summarizing the works of Leo Tolstoy. It sometimes starts out OK with some help, but frequently goes off the rails". 😉
Fun story from our internal testing on Claude 3 Opus. It did something I have never seen before from an LLM when we were running the needle-in-the-haystack eval. For background, this tests a model’s recall ability by inserting a target sentence (the "needle") into a corpus of…
@HoskinsAllen yes my post isn't about the example but the relative lack of cooking going on around this
Today, we're announcing Claude 3, our next generation of AI models. The three state-of-the-art models—Claude 3 Opus, Claude 3 Sonnet, and Claude 3 Haiku—set new industry benchmarks across reasoning, math, coding, multilingual understanding, and vision.
Final update before release (Update #3): # Previous posts # ConceptARC Thread: x.com/kenshin9000_/s… Update #1: x.com/kenshin9000_/s… Update #2: x.com/kenshin9000_/s… I am writing this so that anyone waiting on my results knows what has transpired since "Update #2" on…
Update #2: I am providing this update for those who are awaiting more results regarding my thesis, presented in the thread on December 11th[1], and to clarify what exact performance to expect from my Chess engine, when it is finally released. First, if you haven't seen my…
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