Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

Joined February 2017

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Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

3 months ago

Bottom line: Iran may gain short-term leverage through escalation. But it risks hardening Gulf threat perceptions—reshaping the region’s security posture for years and narrowing the space for de-escalation. What starts as regime survival can become a broader test of state resilience. This kind of pressure rarely ends with a single ceasefire—it accumulates, with long-horizon implications for Iran’s stability and for Gulf risk management. #Iran #GCCSecurity

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Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

3 months ago

If escalation reshapes Gulf threat perceptions at that level, pressure in a prolonged crisis would likely move beyond episodic military exchanges and toward sustained economic and governance pressure inside Iran. The focus shifts from battlefield signaling to internal resilience. #RegionalSecurity #StrategicRisk

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Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

3 months ago

After an unprecedented strike on Iran’s power structure, the key question is no longer the scale of damage. The question is simple: what is the survival strategy of what remains of the regime? Tehran’s core decision circle appears to be converging on a minimalist aim: secure a strategic lever to open talks with President Trump and preserve some form of regime continuity. #Iran #StrategicAnalysis

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Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

9 months ago

Source: Interview with Tom Barrack, U.S. President’s Special Envoy for the Middle East, published by The National (Sept 22, 2025) 👇 🔗 thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2025… #Trump #MiddleEast #Iran #USForeignPolicy #EconomicProsperity

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Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

9 months ago

Iran now stands at a decisive historical moment. One of the most critical junctures in half a century. The choices ahead will shape the country’s destiny. Failure to adapt could prove devastating.

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Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

9 months ago

Tom Barrack’s interview sheds light on Trump’s evolving Middle East policy. He says “peace in the region is nothing but an illusion” as actors struggle for legitimacy. Only economic prosperity can open a new horizon.

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Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

11 months ago

Happy birthday, America! 🇺🇸 📽️ youtu.be/NSqVkuTegxY #July4th2025

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Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

12 months ago

9/ Perhaps the true danger lies not in the adversary itself, but in the domestic political value of keeping the enmity alive. That dynamic has eroded national security and deepened strategic rigidity on both sides. #IranIsrael #StrategicCulture #ConflictResolution #MiddleEastPolicy #Thread

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Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

12 months ago

8/ Four years ago, Prof. Mahmoud Sadri and I warned that “active hostility” between Iran and Israel could become a strategic trap for both sides—fueling insecurity rather than protecting national interests. That warning feels far more urgent today. 🔗 bbc.com/persian/blog-v…

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Alireza Ghandriz(علیرضا قندریز) @Ghanriz

12 months ago

1/ Why are Iran and Israel locked in hostility—despite no border dispute or overlapping influence? The answer lies not in geopolitics, but in strategic culture. 🧵 #Iran #Israel #MiddleEast #StrategicCulture