1/4 – France (R-eff=1.14) is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, plateauing at low mortality. 61,340 cases and 39 deaths/day to be reported by Oct 12, if at same pace. Regional forecast for Oct 06 to Oct 09: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 – Eleven mainland Régions are rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [medium] mortality: [AURA (R-eff=1.16)]; [Bg-Fr-Comté=1.15]; Ctre-Val-L=1.16; Corse=1.14; [Grand-Est=1.16]; HdF=1.13; IdF=1.16. Normand=1.13; Nouv-Aqu=1.14; Occit=1.10; P-de-Loire=1.14.
3/4 –Two mainland Régions are increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality: Bretagne (R-eff=1.09); PACA=1.09.
4/4 –– Overseas Régions: - Landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones, in Guadeloupe=0.84; Martinique=0.81, with low mortality. - Safe in La Réunion, Mayotte; Guyane.
5/4 – Read forecasting for other countries by following @AdelineDugerdil A few definitions: Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week 30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week 140 < High level < 700 Very high level > 700...
6/4 – ... Definitions (cont'd): Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop 0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10 0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20 0.20 < High mortality < 0.50 Very high mortality > 0.50 Alarming mortality > 1.0 Very alarming mortality > 3.0