Al_Pha @Al____Pha

Hedge Fund CIO VIXville, USA Joined February 2023

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2 weeks ago

We are ~9 million bbls away from hitting a storage level that's the equivalent of living paycheck to paycheck for gasoline and distillate. Once we get there, even a minor disruption (any sort of outage) will result in gasoline lines at gas stations. I guess we are really doing this.

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Tipper @TipperJP

2 weeks ago

@DrDavidKass And yet fcf is lower . This is optimistic for you both? 🤔

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Al_Pha @Al____Pha

4 weeks ago

@AndrewThrasher Nice work

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Al_Pha @Al____Pha

a month ago

Interesting.

Peter Girnus 🦅 @gothburz

a month ago

I am the Chairman and CEO of Vornado Realty Trust. Eighty-four years old. Seven buildings in Midtown Manhattan. I said what I said. I said "tax the rich" is the equivalent of a racial slur. I said it at REBNY. Into the microphone. Eight hundred people. Median net worth in that

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Financelot @FinanceLancelot

2 months ago

Have you guys ever experienced an 11.7 sigma event before? Well you just did this week, exceeding the top of the dot-com bubble. The cross-sectional standard deviation of annual returns within the S&P 500 Information Technology sector, as of April 15, 2026, dispersion hit 392.93, which sits 11.7 standard deviations above its long-term historical mean (data going back to 1973). For context: The chart draws horizontal lines all the way up to +6 SD. The current spike blows well past the +6 SD line.

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2 months ago

The peace deal that I identified as unrealistic (i.e. fake when announced) caused Oil to drop ~15%, broad stock to rally ~5%, tech momentum stocks ~25%. Now exposed as such - Oil and stocks should retrace that move (+75mb of Oil was lost in time wasted). Crash is quite possible.

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Gabriel Demarchi Filler @FillerGabriel

2 months ago

@TraderJonesy Term structure is in backwardation.

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Blake @DDBlakeFischer

4 months ago

@michaelbatnick That’s interesting. We also have midterms this year, with an average drawdown of 18%

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3 months ago

11 out of 12 long lower wicks of a 0.8% move (or greater) led to higher prices since June of last year. Only 1 failed. We trade off probability. Since today’s long wick (0.8%) was in a downtrend odds favor a face ripping rally soon. My next move will likely be $SPY calls. 🇺🇸🎆

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Al_Pha @Al____Pha

4 months ago

@JSterz @TheShortBear Correct. Credibility broken.

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Michael Batnick @michaelbatnick

4 months ago

Wild market. We haven't seen anything like this since the dotcom bubble burst. Over the last 8 sessions, 115 stocks in the S&P 500 have decline 7% or more in a single day. The average drawdown when that happens is 34%. Right now we're 1.5% below the all-time high.

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Al_Pha @Al____Pha

4 months ago

@markminervini @markoinny Someone should run a demark exhaustion count analysis on the silver chart.

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Al_Pha @Al____Pha

4 months ago

@yuriymatso Remind me. What security is this trading?

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ZenomTrader @ZenomTrader

5 months ago

Premium Discord is coming. A portfolio analyzer, journal, prop simulator, and forum strategies will be part of it. Plus a fully autonomous end to end pipeline for NT8/MT5 From coding and debugging to backtesting, Automatically exporting results into the journal, And building prop firm compatible portfolios tailored to specific prop firm rules (separate templates for futures firms and CFD firms) Something that has never been done in this industry before And more to come Only my imagination can stop me.

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Al_Pha @Al____Pha

5 months ago

@market_sleuth My bet is up Thursday morning. Then light pullback Thursday afternoon and Friday. Long live the VIX.

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QE Infinity @StealthQE4

5 months ago

Howard Marks on the 10 year returns of the SP500 when you buy it at a 23 P/E ratio or higher. Right now it’s 24-25. In every case the 10 year return range was between -2% and +2% best case scenario. Essentially a lost decade.

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Al_Pha @Al____Pha

6 months ago

@Andreas_Meier82 @IncomeSharks Run a macd on VIX. Much less stress

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Chris @StonkChris

6 months ago

@IncomeSharks yep x.com/StonkChris/sta…

Chris @StonkChris

6 months ago

I’ll be honest… this is one of the easiest swing-trading environments I’ve seen in a long time. The playbook is insanely simple right now: -Buy stocks when the $VIX spikes toward 30 -Sell into momentum when it bleeds back into the mid-teens (~15) Rinse. Repeat.

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6 months ago

Years ago, I studied auction theory and TPO with @PeterReznicek and @vwaptrader1 and realized something: Those 30-minute TPO charts weren't random—they showed repeatable daily distributions from 09:30 to 16:00, dictated by the market environment. So @AC_Trades and I ran the data. Using just the hourly chart + 9:30 price, every day falls into 4 repeatable environments. We needed the hourly charts because 30-minute gave too many outcomes. These 4 market environments from 0930 to 1500—trend, trend with afternoon range, all-day range, and reversion—let you align your type of trading with the actual market in front of you. If the video gives you an aha moment, retweet it.

Stoic @Stoiiic

7 months ago

Price is simply an advertising mechanism with time regulating all advertised opportunities and volume ultimately measuring the success or failure of all advertised opportunities. - J. Dalton Everything Auction Market Theory (Primer) in One Thread